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Forecasting the Recession’s End

I was just poking around the sumary of the latest 2002Q3 survey of professional forecasters at the philly fed. It looks like most forecasters think the recession “officially” ended 9 months ago.
For a related article about the difficulty of forecasting recessions see Forecast Too Sunny? Try the Anxious Index by David Leonhard in today’s NYTimes.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia – Survey of Professional Forecasters, Third Quarter 2002
Forecasters Peg the End of the Recession
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the nation’s official arbiter of the dating of peaks and troughs in economic activity, declared that a peak in economic activity occurred in March 2001. The NBER declares peaks and troughs some months after the month of the peak or trough. In this survey, we asked the forecasters about their views on the date the NBER will say marks the corresponding trough in economic activity. Thirty-one participants answered the question. A large number (12) of the forecasters think the NBER will declare the trough occurred in December 2001. A slightly smaller number (8) think the trough occurred just a bit later, in January or February of this year. Notably, only two forecasters think the recession has not yet ended.

Filed under: Data, Economics, Economy, Recession



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