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NBER recession dating

The NBER continues to lean towards the interpretation that the recession has ended.
Employment declined from the peak in March 2001 until it reached a bottom in April 2002. This later date would be my guess as to the official “end” of the recession.
This assumes, of course, that any subsequent downturn is deemed a separate recession.

Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research
October 9, 2002
The U.S. economy continues to experience increases in production and income with no significant growth in employment. According to recently revised data, real personal income has generally been growing over the past year. Employment grew slightly from May through August 2002, but declined in September. These and other signs indicate that the decline in activity that began last year may have come to an end. The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee will determine the date of a trough in activity when it concludes that a hypothetical subsequent downturn would be a separate recession, not a continuation of the past one. The trough date will mark the end of the recession.

Filed under: Economics, Economy, Recession



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