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Economic News, Data and Analysis

Go Buccaneers! Do it for the Economy!

With the Superbowl looming – I am reminded of the so called “superbowl indicator.”
The idea is that a victory for the NFC team predicts a good year for the stock market. I haven’t looked at the data in a few years, so I thought I would do a quick regression.
In 22 of the last 33 Superbowls (since 1970: that’s all the S&P data I could find) the predictor worked correctly.
Now, I should note that the analysis below is not valid for the following reason – in most years the stock market goes up, and, in the past, in most years the NFC has won the superbowl. This makes the analysis very likely to produce a spurious correlation, that is, an apparent relationship even though none exists in reality. (Technically, both series are likely to be non-stationary, and thus appear to yield a correlation even if there is no relation.)
There are ways to do a more correct analysis – but where’s the fun in that?!
How big is the effect?
By my calculations, the average return when the AFC has won is 7.2% while the average when the NFC has won is 17%. These numbers and the significance of the NFC effect can be found by doing a simple regression of the form:

S&P Return  = 0.0716 + 0.0977 * (NFC win)
(0.0439)  (0.0595)


R2 = 0.080; Standard errors in parenthesis.
The regression shows that the t-stat on the NFC dummy (=1.642) is not significant at the 5% level – (but it is at the 15% level!)
So, there is it. There’s big numerical difference in past average yearly returns (almost 10%), but the difference is not statistically significant. Perhaps we need more data…
Click on “more” for the data.


Super Bowl Boxscores – SuperBowl.com – Official website of Super Bowl XXXVII

Winner	Yearly Return	NFC win
XXXVI Feb. 3, 2002 New England 20, St. Louis 17					AFC	-22%	0
XXXV Jan. 28, 2001 Baltimore 34, N.Y. Giants 7					AFC	-12%	0
XXXIV Jan. 30, 2000 St. Louis 23, Tennessee 16					NFC	-9%	1
XXXIII Jan. 31, 1999 Denver 34, Atlanta 19					AFC	21%	0
XXXII Jan. 25, 1998 Denver 31, Green Bay 24					AFC	29%	0
XXXI Jan. 26, 1997 Green Bay 35, New England 21					NFC	33%	1
XXX Jan. 28, 1996 Dallas 27, Pittsburgh 17					NFC	23%	1
XXIX Jan. 29, 1995 San Francisco 49, San Diego 26					NFC	38%	1
XXVIII Jan. 30, 1994 Dallas 30, Buffalo 13					NFC	1%	1
XXVII Jan. 31, 1993 Dallas 52, Buffalo 17					NFC	10%	1
XXVI Jan. 26, 1992 Washington 37, Buffalo 24					NFC	8%	1
XXV Jan. 27, 1991 N.Y. Giants 20, Buffalo 19					NFC	30%	1
XXIV Jan. 28, 1990 San Francisco 55, Denver 10					NFC	-3%	1
XXIII Jan. 22, 1989 San Francisco 20, Cincinnati 16					NFC	32%	1
XXII Jan. 31, 1988 Washington 42, Denver 10					NFC	17%	1
XXI Jan. 25, 1987 N.Y. Giants 39, Denver 20					NFC	5%	1
XX Jan. 26, 1986 Chicago 46, New England 10					NFC	19%	1
XIX Jan. 20, 1985 San Francisco 38, Miami 16					NFC	32%	1
XVIII Jan. 22, 1984 L.A. Raiders 38, Washington 9					AFC	6%	0
XVII Jan. 30, 1983 Washington 27, Miami 17					NFC	23%	1
XVI Jan. 24, 1982 San Francisco 26, Cincinnati 21					NFC	22%	1
XV Jan. 25, 1981 Oakland 27, Philadelphia 10					AFC	-5%	0
XIV Jan. 20, 1980 Pittsburgh 31, L.A. Rams 19					AFC	33%	0
XIII Jan. 21, 1979 Pittsburgh 35, Dallas 31					AFC	19%	0
XII Jan. 15, 1978 Dallas 27, Denver 10					NFC	7%	1
XI Jan.   9, 1977 Oakland 32, Minnesota 14					AFC	-7%	0
X Jan. 18, 1976 Pittsburgh 21, Dallas 17					AFC	24%	0
IX Jan. 12, 1975 Pittsburgh 16, Minnesota 6					AFC	37%	0
VIII Jan. 13, 1974 Miami 24, Minnesota 7					AFC	-26%	0
VII Jan. 14, 1973 Miami 14, Washington 7					AFC	-15%	0
VI Jan. 16, 1972 Dallas 24, Miami 3					NFC	19%	1
V Jan. 17, 1971 Baltimore 16, Dallas 13					AFC	14%	0
IV Jan. 11, 1970 Kansas City 23, Minnesota 7					AFC	12%	0
III Jan. 12, 1969 N.Y. Jets 16, Baltimore 7					AFC		0
II Jan. 14, 1968 Green Bay 33, Oakland 14					NFC		1
I Jan. 15, 1967 Green Bay 35, Kansas City 10					NFC		1


http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred/data/business/trsp500
S&P 500 Composite: Total Return:
Monthly Dividend Reinvestment from Jan. 1970 to 1988,
Swithced to Daily Reinvestment 1/4/88 (End of Period)
Source: Reprinted with permission from Standard & Poors. Copyright.
DATE TRSP500
1970.01 85.280
1970.02 90.034
1970.03 90.427
1970.04 82.517
1970.05 77.750
1970.06 74.124
1970.07 79.821
1970.08 83.636
1970.09 86.663
1970.10 85.942
1970.11 90.288
1970.12 95.683
1971.01 99.816
1971.02 100.982
1971.03 104.958
1971.04 109.039
1971.05 104.780
1971.06 105.127
1971.07 101.057
1971.08 104.980
1971.09 104.513
1971.10 100.422
1971.11 100.443
1971.12 109.366
1972.01 111.616
1972.02 114.709
1972.03 115.656
1972.04 116.443
1972.05 118.736
1972.06 116.427
1972.07 116.981
1972.08 121.295
1972.09 120.989
1972.10 122.423
1972.11 128.315
1972.12 130.140
1973.01 128.200
1973.02 123.681
1973.03 123.781
1973.04 119.041
1973.05 117.105
1973.06 116.636
1973.07 121.380
1973.08 117.241
1973.09 122.246
1973.10 122.448
1973.11 108.868
1973.12 111.024
1974.01 110.227
1974.02 110.147
1974.03 107.892
1974.04 104.023
1974.05 100.879
1974.06 99.734
1974.07 92.335
1974.08 84.360
1974.09 74.644
1974.10 87.191
1974.11 82.931
1974.12 81.639
1975.01 92.023
1975.02 97.892
1975.03 100.376
1975.04 105.494
1975.05 110.520
1975.06 115.795
1975.07 108.338
1975.08 106.434
1975.09 103.114
1975.10 109.851
1975.11 112.948
1975.12 112.032
1976.01 125.671
1976.02 124.612
1976.03 128.811
1976.04 127.808
1976.05 126.387
1976.06 131.989
1976.07 131.356
1976.08 131.115
1976.09 134.504
1976.10 131.999
1976.11 131.460
1976.12 138.838
1977.01 132.274
1977.02 129.863
1977.03 128.497
1977.04 129.032
1977.05 126.502
1977.06 132.754
1977.07 130.706
1977.08 128.849
1977.09 129.049
1977.10 124.022
1977.11 127.944
1977.12 128.902
1978.01 121.501
1978.02 119.037
1978.03 122.538
1978.04 133.596
1978.05 134.824
1978.06 132.967
1978.07 140.720
1978.08 144.955
1978.09 144.491
1978.10 131.894
1978.11 134.726
1978.12 137.372
1979.01 143.461
1979.02 138.852
1979.03 147.131
1979.04 148.057
1979.05 144.842
1979.06 151.143
1979.07 153.169
1979.08 162.008
1979.09 162.704
1979.10 152.286
1979.11 159.525
1979.12 162.936
1980.01 173.064
1980.02 173.049
1980.03 156.225
1980.04 163.448
1980.05 171.860
1980.06 177.298
1980.07 189.636
1980.08 191.553
1980.09 197.188
1980.10 201.180
1980.11 222.613
1980.12 215.896
1981.01 206.863
1981.02 210.456
1981.03 218.873
1981.04 214.641
1981.05 215.190
1981.06 213.843
1981.07 214.283
1981.08 201.909
1981.09 191.961
1981.10 202.321
1981.11 210.670
1981.12 205.267
1982.01 202.588
1982.02 191.264
1982.03 190.266
1982.04 198.865
1982.05 192.085
1982.06 189.200
1982.07 185.834
1982.08 208.393
1982.09 210.991
1982.10 235.276
1982.11 244.778
1982.12 249.495
1983.01 258.773
1983.02 264.704
1983.03 274.483
1983.04 296.107
1983.05 293.531
1983.06 304.955
1983.07 295.958
1983.08 300.400
1983.09 304.548
1983.10 301.027
1983.11 307.377
1983.12 305.770
1984.01 304.064
1984.02 293.365
1984.03 298.445
1984.04 301.277
1984.05 284.599
1984.06 290.780
1984.07 287.173
1984.08 318.891
1984.09 318.967
1984.10 320.196
1984.11 316.611
1984.12 324.953
1985.01 350.270
1985.02 354.560
1985.03 354.795
1985.04 354.461
1985.05 374.941
1985.06 380.816
1985.07 380.260
1985.08 377.013
1985.09 365.221
1985.10 382.090
1985.11 408.298
1985.12 428.050
1986.01 430.440
1986.02 462.615
1986.03 488.424
1986.04 482.925
1986.05 508.617
1986.06 517.212
1986.07 488.283
1986.08 524.493
1986.09 481.133
1986.10 508.879
1986.11 521.247
1986.12 507.945
1987.01 576.344
1987.02 599.118
1987.03 616.404
1987.04 610.931
1987.05 616.228
1987.06 647.347
1987.07 680.140
1987.08 705.518
1987.09 690.051
1987.10 541.440
1987.11 496.820
1987.12 534.616
1988.01 557.103
1988.02 583.072
1988.03 565.059
1988.04 571.309
1988.05 576.251
1988.06 602.695
1988.07 600.410
1988.08 580.026
1988.09 604.738
1988.10 621.576
1988.11 612.718
1988.12 623.407
1989.01 669.058
1989.02 652.385
1989.03 667.604
1989.04 702.266
1989.05 730.679
1989.06 726.534
1989.07 792.134
1989.08 807.619
1989.09 804.342
1989.10 785.666
1989.11 801.689
1989.12 820.941
1990.01 765.826
1990.02 775.690
1990.03 796.245
1990.04 776.380
1990.05 852.081
1990.06 846.333
1990.07 843.619
1990.08 767.364
1990.09 730.020
1990.10 726.911
1990.11 773.899
1990.12 795.457
1991.01 830.099
1991.02 889.464
1991.03 911.003
1991.04 913.159
1991.05 952.553
1991.06 908.913
1991.07 951.277
1991.08 973.815
1991.09 957.518
1991.10 970.391
1991.11 931.292
1991.12 1037.800
1992.01 1018.461
1992.02 1031.650
1992.03 1011.586
1992.04 1041.338
1992.05 1046.443
1992.06 1030.875
1992.07 1072.988
1992.08 1051.028
1992.09 1063.379
1992.10 1067.052
1992.11 1103.386
1992.12 1116.927
1993.01 1126.211
1993.02 1141.561
1993.03 1165.647
1993.04 1137.472
1993.05 1167.900
1993.06 1171.320
1993.07 1166.609
1993.08 1210.873
1993.09 1201.587
1993.10 1226.443
1993.11 1214.738
1993.12 1229.425
1994.01 1271.222
1994.02 1236.718
1994.03 1182.801
1994.04 1197.969
1994.05 1217.629
1994.06 1187.782
1994.07 1226.786
1994.08 1277.083
1994.09 1245.854
1994.10 1273.843
1994.11 1227.446
1994.12 1245.659
1995.01 1277.963
1995.02 1327.767
1995.03 1366.946
1995.04 1407.198
1995.05 1463.440
1995.06 1497.432
1995.07 1547.091
1995.08 1550.981
1995.09 1616.436
1995.10 1610.658
1995.11 1681.363
1995.12 1713.749
1996.01 1772.079
1996.02 1788.509
1996.03 1805.724
1996.04 1832.347
1996.05 1879.602
1996.06 1886.773
1996.07 1803.415
1996.08 1841.456
1996.09 1945.102
1996.10 1998.750
1996.11 2149.829
1996.12 2107.231
1997.01 2238.881
1997.02 2256.428
1997.03 2163.715
1997.04 2292.885
1997.05 2432.485
1997.06 2541.465
1997.07 2743.683
1997.08 2589.977
1997.09 2731.821
1997.10 2640.585
1997.11 2762.825
1997.12 2810.273
1998.01 2841.357
1998.02 3046.290
1998.03 3202.286
1998.04 3234.503
1998.05 3178.909
1998.06 3308.033
1998.07 3272.807
1998.08 2799.633
1998.09 2978.980
1998.10 3221.295
1998.11 3416.531
1998.12 3613.409
1999.01 3764.508
1999.02 3647.511
1999.03 3793.443
1999.04 3940.345
1999.05 3847.300
1999.06 4060.816
1999.07 3934.018
1999.08 3914.555
1999.09 3807.242
1999.10 4048.167
1999.11 4130.458
1999.12 4373.726
2000.01 4153.979
2000.02 4075.346
2000.03 4474.033
2000.04 4339.428
2000.05 4250.396
2000.06 4355.181
2000.07 4287.092
2000.08 4553.382
2000.09 4312.994
2000.10 4294.759
2000.11 3956.163
2000.12 3975.525
2001.01 4116.573
2001.02 3741.217
2001.03 3504.210
2001.04 3776.524
2001.05 3801.825
2001.06 3709.294
2001.07 3672.779
2001.08 3442.857
2001.09 3164.838
2001.10 3225.188
2001.11 3472.580
2001.12 3503.002
2002.01 3451.881
2002.02 3385.311
2002.03 3512.630
2002.04 3299.666
2002.05 3275.357
2002.06 3042.024
2002.07 2804.913
2002.08 2823.329
2002.09 2516.491
2002.10 2737.982
2002.11 2899.137
2002.12 2728.820

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