The Congressional Budge Office (CBO) today released updated estimates for the federal budget in which it projected a $199 Billion deficit for 2003.
One interesting part of the document is that it seems as thought the CBO believes that the recession that began in March of 2001 came to an end a year ago.
It is customary, when making time-series charts of macroeconomic data, to shade the time periods during which the economy is in recession. The charts produced in their recent publication show the end of the recession in early 2002 (January?).
In addition, the document indicates that there is a possibility that another, separate recession is possible.
The “Outlook” publication is usually very good reading if you want a nice summary of the current economic condition, economic forecasts, as well as possible risks to the economy.
The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2004-2013
The economy has moved from the recovery period after the recession into an expansion phase, which means no more than that the level of real gross domestic product has exceeded the peak that it reached in the fourth quarter of 2000.”
Double-Dip Recession. The economy could turn rapidly worse in 2003 if the imbalances that precipitated the last recession have not been fully worked out. … The economy could tip into recession if consumers slow the growth of their spending to much below the growth of their income.