John Irons's Blog


Economic News, Data and Analysis


Is the NBER’s business cycle dating committee* AWOL?
*Note: the dating committee is not an economists’ “love connection,” but rather the group that follows recessions and announces the dates of the beginning and end of recessions.
They normally release a report once a month clarifying their thinking about the recession, and whether it has (or has not) come to an end.
The most recent report is dated April 10, so an update is over-due. Is the dating committee meeting? Are they ready to declare that the recession has already ended? (The likely date would be sometime in February *2002* as the trough.)
Inquiring minds want to know!
Here is the most recent news relase
Also, GDP has been revised up slighty to 1.9%… not recession, but not very good either. U.S. economic growth revised up in Q1
U.S. gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output within U.S. borders, grew at a revised 1.9 percent annual rate in the January-March quarter, in line with Wall Street economists’ forecasts and a revision upward from 1.6 percent estimated a month ago. The first-quarter expansion exceeded the slim 1.4 percent rate of growth posted in the fourth quarter of last year, but still reflects a slow crawl back to growth rates needed to generate more jobs.

Filed under: Data, Economics, Economy, Recession



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