John Irons's Blog


Economic News, Data and Analysis

Recession Dating Questions

Some very good questions from a reader.
FYI, the change in the methodology mentioned below, I assume, refers to the apparent de-emphasis of employment and the additional emphasis placed on monthly GDP estimates by Macroeconomic Advisors.
Also FYI, the political question should be raised since the Martin Feldstein, the head of the NBER and a member of the dating committee, was at the Whitehouse, meeting with G. Bush, the day before the committee released the announcement.
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I, too, heard that news today, but have heard very little opinion as to whether others agree or disagree; especially considering that the NBER has apparently changed their methods of determining the business cycle. Most importantly, I haven’t heard the opinions of other economists on this determination.
So, my question for you is: Do you agree or disagree with the NBER’s assessment and does it concern you that they changed their methodology to make this determination? Also, is there any possibility that there was a political reason, rather than an academic reason, for the change in their methodology?


Filed under: Economics, Economy, Politics, Recession



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