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An Updated Analysis of the 2008 Presidential Candidates’ Tax Plans

The Tax Policy Center has released an updated analysis of the two campaign’s tax plans.
The outcomes are similar to the first iteration (see below) – with Obama’s tax plan reducing taxes for middle-income (quintile) taxpayers by about $1,000, which is 3 times as large as McCain’s reductions for that group. McCain’s plan would reduce taxes on those in the top 1% by approximately $50,000, whereas those at the top would see an increase under Obama’s plan.
Update: Looks like this version also examines the impact of the policies as stated by the candidates, and not just what their advisers told the TPC. For McCain, the 10-year impact is $2.8 trillion worse than his advisers described to the TPC analysts. By contrast, Obama comes out $370 billion over 10 years to the up-side (most of which comes from a payroll tax surcharge for those making more than $250,000).

An Updated Analysis of the 2008 Presidential Candidates’ Tax Plans

The two candidates’ tax plans would have sharply different distributional effects. Senator McCain’s tax cuts would primarily benefit those with very high incomes, almost all of whom would receive large tax cuts that would, on average, raise their after-tax incomes by more than twice the average for all households. Many fewer households at the bottom of the income distribution would get tax cuts and those tax cuts would be small as a share of after-tax income. In marked contrast, Senator Obama offers much larger tax breaks to low- and middle-income taxpayers and would increase taxes on high-income taxpayers. The largest tax cuts, as a share of income, would go to those at the bottom of the income distribution, while taxpayers with the highest income would see their taxes rise significantly.


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